China’s steel coil market entered August with a more balanced price picture, but demand has yet to show a convincing recovery. Export offers for hot-rolled, cold-rolled and galvanized coil moved within a relatively narrow range during July, with mainstream HRC export indications around USD 530-545 per ton FOB in mid-July. Overseas inquiries were initially restrained by the European summer holiday season and Southeast Asia’s rainy period, although buying interest improved toward the end of July and expectations for August orders became more constructive.

The domestic market remains the main source of uncertainty. Steel buyers are still operating cautiously, with downstream manufacturers largely purchasing according to immediate production needs rather than building large inventories. SMM reported that the non-oriented electrical steel segment weakened in July as appliance and motor demand entered the traditional off-season, while relatively ample mill supply increased inventory pressure. This pattern highlights a broader issue across flat steel markets: supply is available, but downstream demand is not yet strong enough to generate sustained price momentum.

Despite soft consumption, some major Chinese mills are taking a firmer view on September pricing. Baoshan Iron & Steel recently raised its September domestic prices for hot-rolled coil and hot-dip galvanized steel by around USD 7 per ton. The move suggests that mills are attempting to defend margins and stabilize the flat-steel market rather than compete aggressively for volume. Whether this price support can hold will depend largely on September manufacturing activity and the pace of restocking by downstream buyers.

Exporters, meanwhile, continue to face a more fragmented international market. Chinese steel exports remain competitive on a cost basis, but trade-remedy actions are making some traditional destinations increasingly difficult to access. Australia is currently reviewing its measures concerning hot-rolled coil from China, with the review process scheduled to move toward a ministerial decision after the Anti-Dumping Review Panel reports in August. At the same time, Vietnam has launched an interim review of its anti-dumping duties on Chinese HRC, adding another layer of uncertainty for regional trade flows.

Looking ahead, the steel coil market is likely to remain highly selective through August and September. Export demand could improve if overseas buyers replenish inventories after the summer slowdown, while stronger mill pricing may provide some support to domestic coil values. However, weak end-user consumption, elevated inventory pressure and continued trade protectionism will limit the upside. For coil exporters, the most practical strategy is to focus on markets with stable downstream demand, diversify destinations and emphasize value-added products such as galvanized, galvalume and color-coated steel coils rather than relying solely on low-price competition.

Sources:
https://www.gmk.center/en/news/baosteel-is-raising-its-prices-for-flat-steel-products-for-september-sales/
https://baosteelco.com/a-brief-analysis-of-chinas-coil-export-market-in-july-2026/
https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/104058392-smm-analysis-market-sentiment-remains-bearish-price-downside-risks-exist-for-non-oriented-electrical-steel
https://www.industry.gov.au/trade/anti-dumping-review-panel/current-anti-dumping-review-panel-reviews/hot-rolled-coil-steel-exported-peoples-republic-china
https://gmk.center/en/news/vietnam-has-launched-an-interim-review-of-anti-dumping-duties-on-chinese-hrc/