China’s steel exports maintain overall resilience with notable structural divergence by midSeptember 2026. Customs data show August finishedsteel exports stood at around 10.08 million tons, bringing JanuaryAugust cumulative shipments to 75.07 million tons, down 4.8% yearonyear. Plate products (HS 7208 hotrolled coil, HS 7209 coldrolled coil, HS 7210 coated sheet and medium plate) totalled 5.86 million tons in August, falling 3.2% yearonyear. Long products stayed relatively robust, underpinned by infrastructureled demand in emerging markets. Monthly exports of coatedsteel sheets stayed within 740 000810 000 tons. The export mix continues shifting toward highvalue PPGI, PPGL and weatherresistant colourcoated grades for photovoltaic and highend construction sectors, while lowmargin ordinary GI galvanized products face shrinking market access in advanced economies.

Traderemedy measures keep rolling out across AugustSeptember, reshaping global steel trade patterns. Japan imposed provisional antidumping duties on Chinese hotdip galvanized products effective August 8. Market feedback indicates new orders for standardgrade GI material to Japan have largely halted; some displaced cargo flows are diverted to domestic circulation and thirdcountry markets, while highend specialty coated grades remain largely insulated from the measure. The EU revised steel safeguard regime (Regulation 2026/1384) remains in force, featuring compressed dutyfree quotas, 50% overquota tariffs and mandatory meltandpour origintracing rules to curb circumvention. Quota pools are being rapidly exhausted, raising marketentry barriers for Chinese flatrolled products to the EU. In addition, Vietnam’s existing antidumping duties on hotrolled coil remain effective. Australia and South Korea have launched new steeltraderemedy probes, bringing further external uncertainties for Chinese plate exporters. As access to highincome markets tightens, lowbarrier emerging markets across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa absorb nearly 60% of China’s total steel exports and serve as a key buffer base.

On pricing, China’s FOB price edge remains the core support for export enquiries. Septembershipment SS400 hotrolledcoil FOB offers range USD 490495 per ton, still below comparable quotes from Türkiye, India and other overseas suppliers. Domestically, hotrolled and coldrolled spot prices fluctuate within narrow bands amid subdued constructionsector demand and elevated social inventories. Downstream fabricators stick to justintime purchasing. Major mills only carry out minor adjustments on exfactory prices for galvanized and colourcoated products. Limited upward momentum in domestic steel prices preserves China’s price competitiveness in global markets.

Weekly shipment tracking demonstrates solid export resilience. August 2531 steel export shipments reached 2.5482 million tons, rising 7.8% weekonweek for three consecutive weekly gains and hitting an eightweek high. Nevertheless, external headwinds persist. Crudesteel output outside China keeps climbing yearonyear and siphons global purchasing volume. The newexportorders subindex of global manufacturing PMI improved marginally yet stays close to the 50point threshold, signalling muted overseas buying appetite. Benefiting from price competitiveness and diversified destination layout, total export volumes have avoided a steep downturn so far.

Looking ahead, preseason restocking in emerging markets may deliver mild support to September exports. However, the traditional overseas Q4 offseason is approaching, which will bring renewed inventorybuildup risks for exportoriented steel mills. Market consensus points to two major strategies for domestic steel enterprises: further tapping lowbarrier emerging markets to offset share losses in highincome regions; and accelerating product upgrading by scaling up exports of highmargin photovoltaicgrade coated steel, so as to absorb tariffdriven cost increases and stabilise profit margins. Meanwhile, China’s domestic steelexportlicence mechanism continues to curb largescale outflows of lowend steel grades and push the industry toward highervalueoriented export transformation.

Sources https://www.sci99.com/news/55135497.html https://www.promisteel.com/news/chinasteelexportupdateq4outlook85601123.html https://www.100ppi.com/news/detail20260902604872.html http://www.gdtbt.org.cn/html/note455412.html