Latest official customs statistics and weekly exporttracking data show that against the backdrop of growing global trade restrictions and softening external demand, China’s finishedsteel exports have posted yearonyear declines yet maintained notable resilience, with export structure continuously shifting toward highervalueadded products.

Cumulative figures reveal that the yeartodate decline of China’s finishedsteel exports narrowed in JanuaryJune 2026, and June recorded the first yearonyear growth in monthly shipments after successive months of contraction. In July, China exported 10.121 million tonnes of finished steel. Total exports for JanuaryJuly reached 64.995 million tonnes, down 4.4% yearonyear. Flatrolled products, a core export category, came under pressure in H1 due to overseas tradedefence measures but stabilised in July, with monthly shipments hitting 6.02 million tonnes, a mild 1.8% yearonyear drop. Monthly exports of coated steel sheets stayed within the 750 000820 000tonne range. Product mix kept improving, with rising shares of highgrade PPGI and PPGL weatherresistant colourcoated sheets for construction and photovoltaic sectors, delivering stable volumes with upgraded product value.

Multiple economies implemented new steelrelated trade regulations in JulyAugust 2026, reshaping trade flows for Chinese steel. On July 1, the EU’s revised steel safeguard regime (EU Regulation 2026/1384) took effect. It substantially cut dutyfree import quotas, imposed a 50% advalorem duty on overquota imports, and introduced the mandatory “meltandpour” origintraceability rule to raise barriers against circumvention. Japan imposed provisional antidumping measures on Chinese hotdip galvanized products starting August 8. Market feedback indicates new orders for standard GI galvanized material to Japan have largely halted. Part of the displaced cargo has been redirected to the domestic market and thirdcountry destinations, while highvalue specialty coated grades remain largely unaffected. Brazil issued final antidumping rulings on Chinese galvanized and galvalume sheets and coils. Peru levied fiveyear antidumping duties on Chinese structural hotrolled carbon steel pipe effective July 17. Higher entry thresholds in traditional highincome markets have pushed Chinese exporters to further expand presence in lowbarrier emerging markets across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa, which now account for nearly 60% of China’s total steel exports and serve as a fundamental export base.

China’s FOB price competitiveness remains a key underpinning for export enquiries. Augustshipment FOB offers for SS400 hotrolled coil stand at USD 480490 per tonne, below comparable quotations from Türkiye, India and other international suppliers. Domestically, 

hotrolled and coldrolled spot prices fluctuate within narrow bands amid the summer offseason. Weak constructionsector demand and rising social inventories cap price upside. Downstream fabricators adopt justintime purchasing, leading to moderate overall trading activity. Mainstream mills only adjusted exfactory prices for galvanized and colourcoated products marginally, as inventory pressure prevents sharp domestic price rallies, which in turn sustains China’s competitive edge in global markets.

Weekly export shipments stayed above 2.1 million tonnes, recovering quickly after disruptions caused by typhoons. Nevertheless, external headwinds persist: rising crudesteel output outside China diverts part of global procurement volume, and the newexportorders subindex of the global manufacturing PMI remains weak, signalling muted overseas buying appetite. Supported by price advantages and diversified export destinations, China’s steel exports have avoided sharp falls so far.

Looking ahead to the second halfyear, seasonal restocking overseas in Q3 may lend mild support to exports. Q4 will bring the traditional overseas offseason, when exportoriented Chinese mills will again face inventory buildup risks. Industry consensus points to two major directions for domestic steel enterprises: further tapping lowbarrier emerging markets to optimise global sales layout, and accelerating product upgrading by expanding exports of highvalueadded coated steel grades for photovoltaic applications. These moves help absorb tariffdriven cost increases and stabilise profit margins.

Sources：

https://www.sci99.com/news/55135349.html

https://www.promisteel.com/news/china-steel-inventories-mill-profitability-trade-85598897.html

http://www.gdtbt.org.cn/html/note-455282.html

https://www.100ppi.com/news/detail-20260810-6048519.html