China’s finishedsteel exports show prominent structural divergence entering late summer 2026. Customs figures indicate August finishedsteel exports approximated 10.08 million tons, putting JanuaryAugust cumulative shipments at 75.07 million tons, down 4.8% yearonyear. The plate segment (HS 7208 hotrolled coil, HS 7209 coldrolled coil, HS 7210 coated sheet plus medium plate) recorded August exports of 5.86 million tons, falling 3.2% yearonyear. By contrast, longproduct exports maintained robust momentum supported by infrastructuredriven demand across emerging markets. Coatedsheet monthly exports stayed within the 740 000810 000ton range. The product mix keeps shifting toward highvalueadded grades: PPGI, PPGL and weatherresistant colourcoated sheets tailored for photovoltaic and highend construction projects hold rising share, while lowmargin ordinary galvanized GI products face shrinking access to traditional highincome markets.

Traderestriction headwinds keep accumulating through Augustearly September, reshaping global steel trade flows. Japan’s provisional antidumping duties on Chinese hotdip galvanized goods, effective August 8, have nearly halted new orders for standard GI products destined for Japan; displaced cargo is partially diverted to domestic circulation and thirdcountry markets, with premium specialty coated grades largely insulated from the impact. The EU’s revised steel safeguard regime (Regulation 2026/1384) continues enforcing tight quota limits, 50% overquota tariffs and mandatory meltandpour origin tracing rules. In addition, Vietnam’s ongoing antidumping measures against imported hotrolled coil and newlaunched steeltraderemedy probes from Australia and South Korea add extra uncertainties for Chinese plate exporters. As market access in advanced economies tightens further, Chinese mills are accelerating penetration into Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa; these emerging markets now absorb close to 60% of China’s total steel export volume and serve as the core export buffer.

On pricing, China’s FOB price edge remains the key underpinning for export enquiries. Septembershipment SS400 hotrolledcoil FOB offers fluctuate between USD 490495 per ton, still below prevailing offers from Türkiye, India and regional competitors. Domestic hotrolled and coldrolled spot prices move within constrained bands. Constructionsector demand remains subdued and social inventories stay elevated, limiting sharp price rallies. Downstream fabricators stick to justintime procurement. Mainstream steelmakers only implement minor adjustments to exfactory prices for galvanized and colourcoated products; domestic price inertia preserves Chinese competitiveness on world markets.

Weekly shipment tracking reflects solid export resilience despite multifaceted external pressures. August 2531 steel export shipments hit 2.5482 million tons, rising 7.8% weekonweek and marking three consecutive weekly increases, hitting an eightweek high. Nevertheless, external demand is mixed. Crudesteel output outside China continues to climb yearonyear, diverting some global purchasing requirements. The global manufacturing PMI newexportorders subindex shows marginal improvement yet stays close to the 50point threshold, pointing to restrained overseas buying appetite. Supported by price advantages and diversified destination layouts, overall export volumes have avoided a sharp collapse.

Looking further into the second half, September may get mild support from preseason restocking in emergingmarket regions. However, the Q4 traditional overseas offseason is approaching, and exportoriented mills will confront renewed inventoryaccumulation risks. Industry consensus highlights two major operational directions for Chinese steel exporters. First, deepen market development in lowbarrier emerging markets to offset lost share in highincome regions. Second, push forward product upgrading, scalingup shipments of highmargin photovoltaicgrade coated steel to absorb tariffrelated cost burdens and safeguard profit levels. Meanwhile, the domestic steelexportlicence mechanism will continue curbing largevolume outflow of lowend steel grades, further driving the industry toward highvalueoriented export transformation.

Sources：

https://www.sci99.com/news/55135497.html https://www.promisteel.com/news/chinasteelexportupdateq4outlook85601123.html https://www.100ppi.com/news/detail20260902604872.html http://www.gdtbt.org.cn/html/note455412.html