As of mid-July 2026, China’s steel market shows the characteristics of overall volume pressure and optimized product mix. Domestic construction demand remains sluggish, squeezing domestic sales profits of steel mills. High value-added coated steel products including PPGI and PPGL color-coated sheets have become the core pillar to support export performance. At the same time, global trade protection measures keep tightening. Türkiye has imposed 5-year anti-dumping duties of 22.37%-32.40% on China’s galvanized and color-coated boards, pushing domestic steel exporters to adjust their overseas market layout.

In H1 2026, domestic steel supply expanded continuously, and social steel inventories accumulated month by month, keeping spot hot-rolled and cold-rolled coil prices fluctuating within a low narrow range. Domestic demand presented structural differentiation: purchasing demand for ordinary hot and cold rolled coils used in real estate and infrastructure was weak. Downstream manufacturers adopted just-in-time purchasing under the domestic off-season, dragging down overall plate trading activity.

China maintained a net export pattern in H1 2026 with shrinking year-on-year net export volume. China exported 54.874 million tons of finished steel from January to June, down 5.6% year-on-year, while June steel exports reached 10.32 million tons, up 6.6% year-on-year and reversing the downward trend. China’s outstanding FOB price advantage of hot rolled coils is the core support for export resilience. As monitored on July 13, China’s HR coil export price stood at USD 510/ton, lower than Japan, Türkiye and India’s, laying solid fundamentals to sustain export volume.

Multiple negative factors will restrict July steel export performance. Crude steel output outside China rose 1.8% year-on-year in May 2026, and the rising local supply of foreign steel mills continuously diverts global procurement demand. The June Global Manufacturing PMI edged down to 52.2%, and new export order indices fell below 50. Meanwhile, widespread anti-dumping probes and new EU & UK steel import rules with higher tariffs push up export costs and curb European orders.

Looking ahead to H2 2026, spot prices of domestic hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils will keep fluctuating at low levels within a fixed range. Q3 may see mild support from seasonal overseas procurement, while Q4 will enter the traditional overseas off-season and bring inventory pressure to export-oriented steel plants. China’s steel industry is undergoing structural adjustment. Domestic steel exporters will stick to two core strategies: exploring emerging markets with low trade barriers to disperse risks brought by over-reliance on European and American markets; optimizing product mix to increase the export proportion of high-value coated steel such as weather-resistant color-coated sheets for photovoltaic projects, so as to offset overseas tariff costs and stabilize full-year export volume.

Source：https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/indu/2026-07-14/doc-inihvumq1098794.shtml