Hongyuan Futures: Macroeconomic expectations strengthen again and black prices rebound

[Night session review] Futures: RB2401 closed at 3999 yuan, RB2405 closed at 3987 yuan; HC2401 closed at 4107 yuan, HC2405 closed at 4110 yuan, the price difference of thread 1-5 was 12 yuan, and the price difference of hot coil 1-5 was -3 yuan. The difference between the 01 contract and the 05 contract is 108 yuan, and the difference between the 05 contract and the 05 contract is 123 yuan. Spot stock: East China and Shanghai thread 3,990 yuan, East China and Shanghai hot coil 4,060 yuan.

[Important information]

1. The Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement that import and export tariffs on some commodities will be adjusted in 2024. This announcement has adjusted some tariff sub-items of steel products, including the 5 tariff codes of HS8 steel products, mainly including hot-rolled coils, cold-rolled coils and coated coils, and added 5 new sub-categories for them. , are common steel export products, involving a total export volume of 14 million tons from January to November 2023, accounting for 17% of China's finished steel export share this year.

2. According to research by Mysteel, the Tangshan transferred steel mill received a notice to suspend production and restrict production at 0:00 on December 23. This production restriction is expected to last until January 4. On December 20, Mysteel counted that the operating rate of 35 redeployed steel companies in Tangshan was 38.3%. It is expected that the operating rate of this production restriction will drop to about 15%, and the daily output impact will be about 30,000 tons.

3. Major state-owned banks will lower deposit interest rates on December 22. Among them, the listed interest rates of time deposits with maturities of 1 year and less, 2 years, 3 years, and 5 years were reduced by 10BP, 20BP, 25BP, and 25BP respectively.

4. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized that we must do our best to ensure basic supply, improve the ability to ensure supply under extreme weather, increase energy production and supply safely, organize coal production, improve power production and supply capabilities, and make every effort to ensure stable supply of oil and gas.

5. The output of the five major steel products this week was 9.0583 million tons, a decrease of 44,200 tons week-on-week. Among them, the output of rebar, hot-rolled coils, cold-rolled coils, etc. increased, while the output of wire rods, medium and thick plates, etc. decreased. The output of the five major categories of steel this week decreased. The total inventory of steel products was 3.1817 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 200,400 tons. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 4.5365 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 235,400 tons; the social inventory was 8.6452 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 35,000 tons.

[Trading straregy]

Yesterday, the spot market transactions rebounded slightly from the previous month, and the market price rose by 20-30 yuan. Boosted by the meeting of multiple ministries and commissions to plan work for next year and the news of interest rate cuts, the price of black series rebounded yesterday, and macro expectations strengthened again. From a fundamental point of view, this period has seen a slight rebound, with consumption declining month-on-month and inventories increasing; hot coil consumption has rebounded, output has increased slightly, and the supply and demand pattern has improved. In terms of cost, raw material prices are firm, Shagang has raised scrap steel prices, and the main contract has rebounded after testing flat electricity costs. The shock range is focused on 3900-4100.

Source: Wenhua Information

Time: 2023.12.22. 8:33 am