Today 08:28

【 Market Information 】 The closing price of the main contract of rebar in the afternoon was 3,069 yuan per ton, down 48 yuan per ton (-1.53%) from the previous trading day. On that day, 40,679 tons of warehouse receipts were registered, a decrease of 0 tons compared with the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1,602,075 lots, an increase of 87,857 lots compared with the previous period. In the spot market, the consolidated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3,160 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton compared with the previous period. The consolidated price in Shanghai is 3,270 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton compared with the previous period. The closing price of the main contract for hot-rolled coil and sheet was 3,238 yuan per ton, down 44 yuan per ton (-1.34%) from the previous trading day. On that day, 109,014 tons of warehouse receipts were registered, a decrease of 0 tons compared with the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1,148,348 lots, an increase of 42,440 lots compared with the previous period. In terms of spot trading, the total price of hot-rolled coil at Lecong Exchange was 3,260 yuan per ton, a decrease of 40 yuan per ton compared with the previous period. The consolidated price in Shanghai is 3,250 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan per ton compared with the previous period.

【 Strategic Viewpoint 】

The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished products dropped significantly. From a fundamental perspective, the output of rebar decreased significantly this week, and inventories continued to be reduced. The overall performance was moderately stable. The output of hot-rolled coil continued to decline, the demand slightly dropped, and the difficulty of inventory clearance increased. This week, there was also an accumulation of inventory in the factory warehouse. On the macro level, the Central Economic Work Conference held this week clearly stated that we should adhere to taking domestic demand as the leading force and accelerate the building of a strong domestic market. Further optimize the implementation of the "two major" projects and the management of the use of local government special bonds, and promote urban renewal in a high-quality manner. At the same time, it is emphasized to hold the bottom line and actively and steadily defuse risks in key areas. The meeting also proposed to focus on stabilizing the real estate market, adopt city-specific measures to control the increase of new housing, reduce inventory and optimize supply, and encourage the purchase of existing commercial housing for the construction of affordable housing. Against this backdrop, the real estate industry will continue the policy tone of "controlling the increase and reducing inventory", and it is expected that the new housing starts will remain relatively weak. At the news level, there are market rumors that the steel export licensing system may be announced this Friday and officially implemented on January 1st next year. If the news is true, it is expected that the impact on billets and hot-rolled coils will be relatively greater. The specific impact still needs to be confirmed by the official announcement. Overall, the current terminal demand remains weak, the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is prominent, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. As winter storage approaches, it is still necessary to pay attention to the winter storage policies and price guidance.

(Source: Minmetals Futures

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