Strength in Chinese steel exports may extend into May
"Our steel exports have maintained yearon year growth for 10 consecutive months. At present,
China's steel export price advantage is gradually strengthening, while overseas steel supply is
still weak, China's steel export orders index is picking up." Experts say.
The index of new export orders for steelmakers rose 2.3 percentage points to 49.8% in February,
according to a survey by the steel logistics committee of China Federation of Materials. The index
of new export orders for steel distributors rose 3.4 percentage points to 51.5%, according to Lange
Steel.
The hot steel export also led the corresponding route freight prices to stop falling. Prices for a 20-
foot container from Shanghai to Europe were $878 on March 17, up 1.5% from the previous week,
according to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange. A 20 foot container from Shanghai to the Mediterranean
was $1,651, up 3.9 per cent from the previous week, both the first increases this year. Meanwhile,
the price of a 20 foot container between Shanghai and Singapore rebounded to $190, rising for the
third week in a row.
Analysts at Shanghai Steel Group say this is partly due to low exports last year (lower than in previous
years) and higher overseas prices at the end of December than at home, which boosted steel makers'
export orders, leading to a 49 percent year-on-year jump in the first two months of this year. Month on
month growth of about 10%, mainly for February shipment export volume.
Can such a hot steel export momentum continue? Experts expect that in the later period, the export volume
of steel is expected to maintain the high of 5 million tons to 6 million tons, so the export volume of steel in March and April will still maintain the year on year growth, but because of the high base after May last year,
it is difficult to maintain the year-on-year growth.
Analysts of Shanghai Steel Union believe that after the Spring Festival, Chinese steel export orders continue
to be good, since the beginning of March, most steel mills have entered the May shipping schedule. It is
expected that the export volume in March and April will increase further than that in February. From the current
order level,the shipment export volume in May will maintain a high level, and the growth momentum of steel
export is expected to continue until May.
However, in the view of experts, "at present, the domestic hot roll price has reached a high, it is difficult to
continue to break upward. In addition, steel exports are likely to face some pressure in the second quarter
as steel supply gradually recovers in regions such as Turkey and overseas steel demand weakens due to
the rainy season in Southea st Asia until June."